Below-normal rainfall, above-normal temperatures expected in most parts of country from June to August: PMD

The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) on Wednesday forecast below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures across most parts of the country during the months of June to August. The PMD said in its outlook that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently in a neutral phase and is expected to shift to a positive phase by July 2026, while the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has moved into a positive phase (El Nino) and is expected to strengthen further during the season. In view of these conditions, the PMD said that “normal to below-normal” rainfall was expected over most parts of the country during the June–July–August (JJA) season, with the largest negative departures likely over the northeastern parts of Punjab. The findings were reinforced by the Met Office’s probability outlook, which indicated a high probability of below-normal rainfall across most of Pakistan, particularly Punjab, Sindh, southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and most of Balochistan. “In contrast, near-normal to slightly above-normal rainfall is anticipated over the northern regions, including Gilgit-Baltistan, adjoining areas of northern KP, and Kashmir,” it added. Comparative maps showing normal versus predicted rainfall in Pakistan. — via PMD Meanwhile, mean temperatures are expected to remain above normal throughout the country during the JJA season, with maximum departure over the northeastern parts of the country — particularly eastern GB, Kashmir and adjoining areas of northern Punjab. The probabilistic temperature outlook indicated the likelihood of “above-normal temperatures across much of the country, with the highest likelihood over Sindh, southeastern Balochistan, and central to northeastern parts of Punjab”. In contrast, western GB is projected to tend towards below-normal temperatures, it added. Comparative maps showing normal versus predicted temperatures in across Pakistan. — via PMD The PMD warned that lower levels of rainfall were likely to cause “moisture stress for Khari