IEA forecasts massive oil surplus in 2027 after Hormuz recovery
Key takeaways
- The war is estimated to have blocked more than 14 million barrels per day of Middle East oil output, according to Reuters.
- The IEA nonetheless flagged that operational and political hurdles — among them the time needed to clear mines and disputes over transit rights — could slow the pace at which Middle East output returns.
- Before the surplus materializes, the market faces further strain.
IEA forecasts massive oil surplus in 2027 after Hormuz recovery Quartz · Credit: Tom Fisk / Pexels Cris Tolomia Thu, June 18, 2026 at 7:48 PM GMT+7 2 min read CL=F The International Energy Agency is forecasting a significant oil supply surplus in 2027 as Middle East production recovers from the disruption caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with global supply expected to outpace demand by more than 5 million barrels per day.
According to the IEA s June oil market report, consumption is expected to reach 105.3 million barrels per day in 2027 — a gain of 2 million barrels per day — while output climbs by roughly 8 million barrels per day to hit 110 million barrels per day. The agency said the surplus "may provide a welcome respite to the market and an opportunity to replenish depleted inventories, or to build new strategic reserves, as countries review their energy strategies and policies in response to the crisis."
The forecast comes after an interim agreement between the U.S. and Iran, scheduled to be signed on June 19 in Switzerland, paved the way for a reopening of the strait and a lifting of the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian oil. The war is estimated to have blocked more than 14 million barrels per day of Middle East oil output, according to Reuters.