Prediction: Home Depot Will Hit $400 on This Date

Prediction: Home Depot Will Hit $400 on This Date Vandita Jadeja Wed, June 24, 2026 at 11:41 PM GMT+7 4 min read HD Quick Read HD trades at $324, down 4% year to date, while our model targets $383 with a bull case reaching $430. Reaching $400 by 2027 requires mortgage rates to ease, comps near +2%, and SRS s 1,280 locations to keep driving revenue. At 20x forward earnings, HD trades below its trailing multiple of 23x and closer to its 52-week low than its high. Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Home Depot didn t make the cut. Grab the names FREE today. Home Depot (NYSE:HD) is the largest home improvement retailer in America, and right now it is caught between two stories. The fundamentals are steady while the stock has drifted lower. Shares trade at $324.45 after slipping 4.3% year to date, while management just reaffirmed full-year guidance and pushed comparable sales back into positive territory. The question I want to answer is straightforward. Can HD reach $400 per share by 2027, and what has to happen for it to get there? The market is punishing patience. HD is down 6.63% over the past year and off 3.75% in the last week alone, even though Q1 FY2026 revenue grew 4.8% to $41.77B with comparable sales of +0.6%. The drag is housing. Customer transactions fell 1.3% year over year, and CEO Ted Decker acknowledged "greater consumer uncertainty and housing affordability pressure" on the Q1 call. Add in SRS Distribution intangible amortization of roughly $119M per quarter compressing reported margins, and you have a stock that looks tired. With a beta of just 0.974, HD is not going to rip higher on sentiment alone. It needs a catalyst. Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Home Depot didn t make the cut. Grab the names FREE today. Consensus is constructive but cautious. The Street s average target sits at $370.18, with 4 Strong Buy, 18 Buy, 14 Hold, and zero Sell ratings. Our base case model puts fair value at $382.85, an 18% upside, with confidence at 90% and a bull scenario reaching $429.92. I think analysts are anchoring too tightly to the next four quarters. With 61% bullish sentiment and earnings growth contribution running slightly negative at -0.004, the consensus is pricing in a status-quo housing market. Any normalization of mortgage rates flips that math fast. Here is the math. Reaching $400 from today s price of $324.45 would require a gain of 23.3%. With forward EPS of $16.31, a price of $400 implies a forward P/E of 25x. Our base case of $382.85 already implies 22x, meaning the bold target requires roughly 2.3 turns of additional multiple expansion. That is achievable. The 247Factor adjustment of 1.066 is driven by a 1.05 Consumer Cyclical sector multiplier and 0.037 analyst consensus contribution, dampened 50% for mega-cap size. Average ticket rose 2.2% to $92.76, SRS now operates over 1,280 locations, and Decker noted underlying demand was "relatively stable". The risk is a deeper housing recession that pushes comps negative. At $324.45 against forward EPS of $16.31, HD trades at a forward P/E of 20x. That is below its trailing multiple of 23 and a steep discount to its $418.06 52-week high. The stock sits closer to its $286.95 52-week low than its highs. Over the past decade, HD has delivered a 227.13% return, a reminder that buying quality compounders during housing slowdowns has historically paid. Today s multiple looks cheap if FY2027 EPS reaccelerates. $400 by 2027 requires a gain of 23.3% from here, modest multiple expansion to 24.5x, and a housing market that stops actively hurting. I think it is realistic. Three things need to happen: comps need to push toward the high end of the flat to +2.0% guidance, SRS and GMS need to keep adding incremental revenue, and mortgage rates need to drift lower to thaw transaction volume. A renewed housing recession derails it. Returns at this level shouldn t be expected every year, but we ve outlined the blueprint for how Home Depot could reach $400 in 2027. Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Home Depot didn t make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.

Prediction: Home Depot Will Hit $400 on This Date

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Prediction: Home Depot Will Hit $400 on This Date

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