Next Year Will See An Oil Glut But Price Pressure Will Be Delayed
Key takeaways
- Energy Next Year Will See An Oil Glut But Price Pressure Will Be Delayed By Michael Lynch,
- Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights.
- As always, there is a huge split between oil price bulls and bears which is hardly surprising given the massive uncertainty about the geopolitical environment.
Energy Next Year Will See An Oil Glut But Price Pressure Will Be Delayed By Michael Lynch,
Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. I analyze petroleum economics and energy policy.Follow Author Jun 25, 2026, 07:21am EDT--:-- / --:--This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more.This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more.Summary Oil markets are sharply divided, with forecasters largely predicting a significant supply glut next year, potentially pushing prices below pre-war levels as Persian Gulf production recovers. However, price bulls highlight a fragile US-Iran ceasefire and past IEA surplus forecasts that failed to depress prices. The prior "missing barrels" were later attributed to sanctioned oil in floating storage and China's strategic purchases, which cushioned war-related supply shocks. While a glut is probable, strategic stock replenishment by IEA nations and China could absorb much of the surplus, delaying immediate price pressure. Ultimately, growing commercial inventories will likely force OPEC, especially Saudi Arabia, to decide between supporting prices or allowing a 2014-like collapse, benefiting consumers but challenging the industry.
As always, there is a huge split between oil price bulls and bears which is hardly surprising given the massive uncertainty about the geopolitical environment. Will the ceasefire hold? Will Russia accept a peace deal? Will investment in Venezuelan oil rise and increase production?