The Strait of Hormuz is more open than previously thought as the U.S. shoots down Iranian drones threatening ships and provides ‘naval overwatch’
Talks to extend the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran are dead in the water, but traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is anything but. The number of ships transiting the contested waterway remains just a fraction of pre-war levels, but fresh reports indicate activity is busier than previously thought. In the last two months—roughly the time that the ceasefire has been in place—U.S. forces have counted nearly 1,000 commercial vessels going in and out of the strait, sources told Bloomberg, adding that most were large cargo and container ships. That translates to about 17 ships per day. While that is well below the daily rate of more than 100 ships before the U.S. and Israel launched their war on Iran on Feb. 28, that’s significantly more than other reports show. For example, U.S. Navy data published by the Joint Maritime Information Center tallied 558 cargo ships and oil tankers crossing the strait during the three-month period from March 1 to June 3. And maritime data company Kpler counted 895 ships between March 1 and May 19. The 1,000-ship figure presumably includes vessels that turned off their Automatic Identification Systems, which broadcast their positions, as well as ships that are using both the Iran-sanctioned route and the alternate route along Oman’s coast. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps established its lane soon after the war started. Since then, the IRGC has charged tolls on ships that have been granted permission and attacked any that tried to cross unauthorized. To bypass the IRGC-controlled lane, the U.S. Navy began mine-clearing operations in April and sent two destroyers through the strait to re-establish freedom of navigation near Oman’s coast. That was followed by Project Freedom last month, which aimed to get more ships out with U.S. help, but it ended after only a few days. The U.S. military still managed to carve out the Omani lane and has been quietly aiding ships get through the strait while they travel “dark.”