Here's why bitcoin turned lower from the 200-day average
Key takeaways
- Since then, prices have pulled back to $77,500 in a move reminiscent of 2022 when a 43% relief rally failed at the same indicator before bitcoin resumed its decline.
- CryptoQuant says the April and early May rally had been supported by three things: leveraged futures buying, spot demand, and U.S.
- The clearest cross-check is the Coinbase bitcoin premium, which has remained negative through much of the May rally and the subsequent correction, CryptoQuant points out in the report.
Crypto Quant explains why. By Sam Reynolds|Edited by Omkar Godbole May 21, 2026, 4:52 a.m. 2 min read Make preferred on (Anthony Maw/Unsplash)What to know: Bitcoin is trading near $77,900 after failing to break above its 200-day moving average around $82,400, a level analysts see as a key test between a bear-market bounce and a sustained recovery.CryptoQuant says demand drivers behind the recent rally—leveraged futures buying, spot demand and U.S. spot bitcoin ETF inflows—have all weakened, with its Bull Score Index dropping to an “extremely bearish” reading of 20.U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have seen roughly $2 billion in outflows over the past two weeks and key demand gauges in the U.S., Korea and Hong Kong are soft, leaving $70,000 as the next major on-chain support level if the correction deepens.Bitcoin's BTC$77,996.07 recovery from February lows, which had begun to look like a new bull run, hit a wall last week at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) positioned just above $82,000. Since then, prices have pulled back to $77,500 in a move reminiscent of 2022 when a 43% relief rally failed at the same indicator before bitcoin resumed its decline.
Analytics firm CryptoQuant's latest report offers a compelling explanation for why the rally failed to break through the critical average, a long-term trend line traders often treat as the dividing line between a bear-market bounce and a real recovery.
CryptoQuant says the April and early May rally had been supported by three things: leveraged futures buying, spot demand, and U.S. ETF inflows. All three have now weakened. The firm's Bull Score Index has fallen from 40 to 20, a level the firm calls “extremely bearish” and one that matched the February-March period when bitcoin traded between $60,000 and $66,000.