Hyperliquid takes a swing at Polymarket with macro outcome bets
Key takeaways
- The leading decentralized exchange has expanded its HIP-4 outcome contracts beyond crypto price milestones into real-world events.
- Hyperliquid first tested the product on exchange‑native outcomes, such as whether bitcoin would trade above a specific level by a fixed time using Hyperliquid’s own reference prices.
- Native resolutionWhat sets it apart is that HIP‑4 brings dispute resolution and settlement in‑house, rather than depending on an external oracle network like Polymarket.
The decentralized exchange’s new HIP-4 product lets traders bet on offchain events like inflation and interest-rate decisions, using validators rather than UMA-style external dispute resolution.By Sam Reynolds|Edited by Omkar Godbole May 26, 2026, 6:44 a.m. 2 min read Make preferred on What to know: Hyperliquid has expanded its HIP-4 outcome market to let users trade prediction-style contracts on offchain events like U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve decisions alongside crypto derivatives.Unlike rival Polymarket, which relies on UMA’s external oracle, Hyperliquid resolves these markets through its own validator set, which ingests news, decides which markets to list and votes on settlement outcomes.The fully collateralized Yes/No contracts, which settle at either 1 USDC or zero, position Hyperliquid as a potential multi-asset venue where traders can combine crypto perps with macro and event-driven bets without shifting collateral across platforms.Decentralized platform Hyperliquid is now competing with established betting platforms such as Polymarket, but with a differentiated mechanism for resolving bets.
The leading decentralized exchange has expanded its HIP-4 outcome contracts beyond crypto price milestones into real-world events. This native prediction-market infrastructure allows users to trade macro contracts, such as inflation data and interest-rate decisions, directly alongside their standard crypto perpetuals out of a single account.
Outcome markets mark a notable expansion for the decentralized derivatives venue, which built its business around crypto perpetual futures and initially tested the product using price‑outcome contracts settled against its own market data.