El Niño conditions likely to develop during 2026 monsoon season in South Asia, PMD says
Why this matters: local context for readers following news across Pakistan and the region.
El Niño conditions are likely to develop during the 2026 monsoon season in South Asia, alongside higher-than-normal minimum and maximum temperatures across most of the region, according to a statement by Pakistan’s meteorological office on Friday. El Nino is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It brings changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns. Conditions oscillate between El Nino and its opposite La Nina, with neutral conditions in between. The last El Nino contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the all-time high. The climate outlook for the 2026 southwest monsoon season (June to September) was finalised during the 34th session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (Sascof-34) held in Malé, Maldives on Tuesday. According to the spokesperson of the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), Anjum Nazir Zaighum, and a statement issued by the PMD, below normal rainfall is most likely during the 2026 southwest monsoon season over most parts of South Asia, particularly across the central parts of the region. “However, some areas over the northwestern, northeastern and parts of the southern region are likely to experience normal to above normal rainfall,” the statement noted. It highlighted that minimum and maximum temperatures during the upcoming season are expected to be above normal across most of South Asia. The forum deliberated on various observed and emerging climatic features that influence the performance of the southwest monsoon such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (Enso), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), winter and spring Northern Hemisphere (NH) snow cover and land surface temperature anomalies. Currently, Enso-neutral conditions in the equatorial Pacific are transitioning toward El Niño conditions, the Sascof-34 statement added. “Based on the global climate model forecasts, there is strong consensus among experts that the El Niño c