Why there's more talk of an AUKUS 'plan B'

Australia will not acquire its first Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarine from the United States until the 2030s. (Reuters: Brian Snyder) Link copiedShareShare articleGrowing concerns over a "capability gap" that could leave Australia exposed without a submarine fleet is leading some defence industry and policy figures to argue the country needs to think about an AUKUS "plan B". The federal government argues the AUKUS "optimal pathway", which would see Australia acquire three American-built nuclear-powered submarines in the 2030s, and Australian-built AUKUS submarines from the 2040's, remains on track. But some are urging the federal government to start considering contingencies. Concerns over plans to extend the life of the aging Collins-class submarine fleet, the pace of construction in American naval shipyards, and the complexity of designing and building an entirely new fleet of nuclear-powered submarines are prompting the warnings. In short, Australia needs to extend the life of an aging fleet of submarines by close to two decades. Defence Minister Richard Marles and UK Secretary of State for Defence Grant Shapps have met several times to discuss AUKUS. (Department of Defence) The United States needs to double the production rate of its nuclear-powered submarine shipyards in a matter of years. And Australia and the United Kingdom need to together design and build an entirely new nuclear-powered submarine before 2040. Many of those pushing possible contingencies, in case any of that goes wrong, see them as fallback options — that can be relied upon if the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines is delayed, and provide a useful additional capability if everything goes to plan. Port Kembla was identified as a preferred location for a nuclear submarine base in newly released documents. The government argues its confidence stems from confidence within its AUKUS partners, that what is being proposed will be achieved. But others argue the risk that Australia could be left exposed, without a submarine fleet during a period of heightened tensions in the Indo-Pacific, are simply too great for back-up plans not to be explored. UK and the US agreed to an 'optimal pathway' that would see Australia equipped with nuclear-powered submarines. One of the first major milestones is the establishment of Submarine Rotational Force-West, which will see American and British nuclear-powered submarines rotating through HMAS Stirling south of Perth from next year. The purpose is to learn how to operate and maintain the highly complex boats. In 2032, Australia expects to acquire its first Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarine from the United States. Under the AUKUS agreement, Australia would buy at least three Virginia-class submarines, but can buy up to five if required. Australia's six Collins-class submarines are rotated as they undergo repairs. (Four Corners) The first Australian-built AUKUS-class nuclear-powered submarine would arrive in the early 2040s, likely 2042. As those submarines are being slowly acquired, Australia's six existing Collins-class submarines would remain in the water. The aging fleet, the oldest of which is 30 years old, would go through an $11 billion 'life of type' extension to ensure they can remain in the water into the 2040s A massive program of upgrades to Australia's aging fleet of Collins Class submarines, aimed at keeping them in the water a decade longer, is being scaled back. The exact scope of how much can and will be done to each boat is still being determined, and the government announced this week it is dumping a plan that would have replaced the diesel engines in each submarine. Mike Hughes, the director of the Defence Strategy Program at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, said there are clear risks in every key step of the AUKUS optimal pathway. "The value of three democratic countries working on a great, once in a generation project is that they are quite transparent about the nature of the project," he said. "The risks are substantive, they are real. "The governments themselves have identified those three key risks in terms of the Collins-class life of type extension, the Virginia class submarine handover, and then of course, the actual building and delivery of SSN-AUKUS itself." For its part, the federal government remains extremely confident that the AUKUS pathway will play out exactly as planned. Defence Minister Richard Marles has faith the US will deliver the Virginia-class submarines. (ABC News: Ian Cutmore) Asked recently about reported delays in US shipyards, Defence Minister Richard Marles said he's not alarmed. "We're really confident with the progress of construction and sustainment within the US industrial base of their Virginia-class submarines," he said. "The production rate which we are working to — which needs to be in place in the early 2030s in order to have the space for the Virginias to be provided to Australia — we'r

Why there's more talk of an AUKUS 'plan B'

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