One Nation set to become federal opposition, poll predicts

A major opinion poll predicts One Nation would win dozens of seats if a federal election was held today. (AAP: Bianca De Marchi) A major opinion poll predicts One Nation would win dozens of seats if a federal election was held today. Pauline Hanson’s party would not only come close to wiping out the Coalition, but claim seats off Labor too, according to the RedBridge Group and Accent Research poll. One Nation MP Barnaby Joyce says it’s “hubristic” to assume "what may or may not be down the track". Link copiedShareShare articleAngus Taylor has urged the party faithful to mobilise as polling indicates that the Liberals are at risk of nearly being wiped out by One Nation. RedBridge Group and Accent Research polling shows One Nation would become the opposition if a federal election was held today, depleting the Liberals and completely wiping out the National Party. The poll of more than 6,000 voters showed Pauline Hanson's party could win as many as 59 seats, which would include flipping many Labor-held electorates. But One Nation MP Barnaby Joyce said it was "hubristic and way, way, way ahead of ourselves" to assume where the party would be at the next election. "What's before us is an incredible responsibility placed on us by the Australian people," he told ABC News. "We'll rise to the responsibility, but we're not going to get carried away with what may or may not be down the track." The poll is a snapshot of voter intentions now, rather than a prediction of the next election result. With the rise of One Nation's popularity and younger voters increasingly turning to the Greens, the traditional two-party system in Australian politics has been dismantled, a former political strategist argues. The report produces a low-to-high estimate of how many seats each party could win. It estimates One Nation would win between 46 and 59 seats, with a median of 53. If reflected at the next federal election, it would be a staggering result for a party that has never won a lower house seat at a general election. It holds two: one from Barnaby Joyce's defection and the second from David Farley's recent win at the Farrer by-election. The voter surveys covered the period during which the Farrer by-election was held. (AAP: Bianca de Marchi) Labor is estimated to win between 70 and 82 seats, with a median of 76, which would be a sizeable drop from its current 94. The Coalition is projected to be reduced to between seven and 21 seats. The median prediction has the Liberals winning 12 and the National Party none. Accent Research political scientist Shaun Ratcliff said if Australians voted like this at a federal election, it would wipe out the two-party system. Rural SA electorates that were once safe Liberal seats are now marginal, thanks to voters swinging towards One Nation. "We see the Labor Party probably winning a majority, but only just, but with a real significant chance of a minority Labor government." The voter surveys were conducted between 29 April and 14 May, and therefore include the Farrer by-election, but only a brief period of the budget wash-up. Attempting to energise a Liberal Party conference in Victoria ahead of the November state election, Mr Taylor said the party must make "every effort" to "rid" the nation and state of "rotten" Labor governments. "If the vote sprays, Labor stays," he told the crowd. "I have never seen a better time in my political career to recruit supporters and members to the Liberal Party. "Let's get them putting corflutes up, let's get them on the booths." Angus Taylor says every effort must be made to get rid of Labor governments. (ABC News) Almost simultaneously, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese addressed the Labor Party conference in Victoria, where he criticised Mr Taylor's recent budget reply speech, in which he outlined a plan to stop migrants from being able to receive welfare payments. "[He] is going around talking about the difference between 'migrants' and 'Australians' as if someone cannot be both," Mr Albanese said. "I have never heard a serious mainstream political leader use that sort of language." Mr Albanese also defended his controversial changes to negative gearing and the capital gains tax (CGT) discount, which the opposition has labelled a "war" on aspiration. "The system isn't working," Mr Albanese said. "It's the right thing to do, not the easy thing." Labor's capital gains tax changes have set off a firestorm of debate about the implications for small businesses, start-ups, share owners and plenty more. Here's who will really pay more. Despite the PM showing little appetite to alter his proposed CGT arrangements, Labor backbencher Jerome Laxale said "more work needs to be done on the application of this element of the budget on small businesses and start-ups". "Consultation is ongoing and I welcome that," the former small business operator said. Responding to the budget in his speech to the Liberal function on Saturday, Mr Taylor

One Nation set to become federal opposition, poll predicts

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