business
Prediction market traders bet bitcoin's selloff has further to run
Key takeaways
- On Kalshi, traders currently assign a 66% probability that bitcoin drops below $55,000 this year and a 50% probability of sub-$50,000 prices.
- Contracts on the platform imply a roughly 67% chance bitcoin falls below $55,000 this year and a better-than-even chance it drops under $50,000.
- On prediction platform Polymarket, traders now give bitcoin only a 30% chance of outperforming gold in 2026.
On Kalshi, traders currently assign a 66% probability that bitcoin drops below $55,000 this year and a 50% probability of sub-$50,000 prices. They also give a 31% chance that prices could even dip below $40,000.
Polymarket traders are expressing a similar view. Contracts on the platform imply a roughly 67% chance bitcoin falls below $55,000 this year and a better-than-even chance it drops under $50,000.
On prediction platform Polymarket, traders now give bitcoin only a 30% chance of outperforming gold in 2026. Gold is down approximately 1.5% in the last month but is up 33% in the last year while BTC is down around 37%.
Article preview — originally published by CoinDesk. Full story at the source.
Read full story on CoinDesk →
More top stories
Also covered by
Bloomberg Tech
Galaxy Digital Sets Up Prediction Market OTC Derivatives Des
Yahoo Finance
Why Zoetis Inc. (ZTS) Was Downgraded Following Steep Market Selloff?
Bloomberg Tech
Prediction Market Bettors Lagging Sports Gamblers: Report
Yahoo Finance
Bitcoin Traders Flip Bearish as BTC Falls to Lowest Price in Months
Aggregated and edited by the Scoop newsroom. We surface news from CoinDesk alongside other reporting so you can compare coverage in one place.
Editorial policy · Corrections · About Scoop