Tenth anniversary of Brexit, UK GDP per head cost of 8% in 2025, LSE professor estimates
Key takeaways
- Ten years ago, June 2016, the UK voted to leave the EU and since then, an extensive body of research has studied the impact of Brexit on the UK economy.
- An 8 per cent decline would represent a loss of 3,300 per person in 2024.The overall findings are emphatic: Brexit has made the UK poorer than it would have been had the UK remained in the EU.
- The paper from Professor Sampson published in the LSE post focuses on three channels through which Brexit has hurt the UK economy: import prices, uncertainty and trade barriers.
Why this matters: an international story with cross-border implications worth tracking.
Ten years ago, June 2016, the UK voted to leave the EU and since then, an extensive body of research has studied the impact of Brexit on the UK economy.
Researchers have analyzed how the June 2016 vote, the January 2020 departure from the EU and the January 2021 implementation of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) have affected prices, wages, employment, domestic and foreign investment, output, productivity, trade and financial markets among many other outcomes.
(And let us not forget the impact of Brexit on British Overseas Territories, in particular for the Falkland Islands which since then have faced tariffs and quotas on its exports to the European Union, which before was a fluid, no impediments bilateral relation.)