IATA warns global airline profits to halve in 2026
Key takeaways
- The revised IATA forecast puts combined industry net profit at $23 billion for the current year — a steep drop from the $45 billion recorded in 2025 and far short of the $41 billion the group had previously anticipated.
- Jet fuel prices are expected to average $152 per barrel in 2026, up nearly 70% from $90 per barrel in 2025, according to IATA.
- "War-related disruptions in the Middle East and rising fuel costs have shifted the outlook for airlines to the worse," IATA Director General Willie Walsh said in a statement.
IATA warns global airline profits to halve in 2026 Quartz · Bloomberg / Getty Images Cris Tolomia Mon, June 8, 2026 at 6:28 PM GMT+7 3 min read The International Air Transport Association warned Sunday that global airline profits will fall by half in 2026, as the Middle East war drives jet fuel prices to historic highs and disrupts key air corridors across the Gulf region.
The revised IATA forecast puts combined industry net profit at $23 billion for the current year — a steep drop from the $45 billion recorded in 2025 and far short of the $41 billion the group had previously anticipated. The net profit margin is forecast to fall to 2.0%, from 4.2% in 2025, while on a per-passenger basis, net earnings are forecast to fall to $4.50, compared with $9.10 in 2025, as higher fuel costs eat into returns.
Jet fuel prices are expected to average $152 per barrel in 2026, up nearly 70% from $90 per barrel in 2025, according to IATA. Collectively, those higher prices are projected to lift the industry's annual fuel expenditure to roughly $350 billion, compared with $252 billion in 2025, pushing fuel's share of total operating costs from 25.4% to 31.4%.