Analysis: Structural barriers hindering cotton revival plan

PAKISTAN’S cotton sector has once again entered the season with ambitious official targets and deep uncertainty on the ground. The Federal Committee on Agriculture has set a production target of 9.64 million bales for the 2026-27 crop, to be cultivated on 5.33 million acres, but growers, ginners and textile players remain divided over whether the country can even come close to achieving that figure. The scepticism is understandable. Last season, Pakistan produced only around 5.6m bales against a target of 10.2m bales, one of the sharpest shortfalls in recent history. Over the years, cotton acreage has steadily shrunk, yields have stagnated, and the country has increasingly relied on imports to keep its textile industry running. The latest projections by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) paint an equally worrying picture. The USDA estimates Pakistan’s cotton production for the upcoming season at around 6.94m bales, while domestic consumption is projected at 14m bales. That gap means the country may have to import over 7m bales during the year. The consequences are already visible. Textile mills have started importing cotton from the US and Brazil even before the new ginning season has properly begun. Industry reports suggest Pakistani mills recently bought over 206,000 bales from the US alone, accounting for almost the entire weekly US export sale. The import bill for cotton could cross $1bn this year. Pakistan targets 9.64m bales for 2026-27, but shrinking acreage, sugarcane expansion, and import reliance cast doubts Yet the crisis has also triggered an unusual development: cotton prices have surged to historic levels, encouraging many growers to return to the crop after years of losses. Phutti prices have crossed Rs12,000 per 40kg in some markets, compared to less than Rs6,000 during previous seasons, while lint prices are hovering around Rs23,000 per maund. In Sindh, growers appear more confident than they have in years. Senior vice-president of t