Major forecasters see mortgage rates staying above 6.0% through 2027—unless this happens

Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert’s Resi Club in your inbox? Subscribe to the Resi Club newsletter. Economists have got some bad news for homebuyers hoping for a return to 4.0% or 5.0% mortgage rates. Recent forecasts published by Fannie Mae, Wells Fargo, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) all suggest the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is likely to remain above 6.0% through at least 2027. While forecasts for long-term yields—including mortgage rates—should not be taken as guarantees, unless something material shifts in the economy (i.e., spike in joblessness), most economic forecasters do not expect a significant short-term decline in mortgage rates. Fannie Mae’s latest forecast projects the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate ending 2027 around 6.2%. Wells Fargo’s latest outlook similarly sees mortgage rates ending 2027 around 6.2%. Of the forecasters, the Mortgage Bankers Association is the highest. In its latest forecast commentary, published in May 2026, the firm’s economists wrote that “Treasury yields and mortgage rates will stay higher for longer.” MBA forecast that mortgage rates will be near 6.5% through much of 2026 and 2027. The broader takeaway across the forecasts: Economists increasingly expect mortgage rates to ease only gradually over the next few years rather than fall sharply. That outlook isn’t entirely new. Back in late 2025, both Fannie Mae and MBA were already signaling that most of the easy mortgage-rate relief was likely already realized unless the economy weakened more materially. Since then, mortgage rates have largely remained within the same range, ticking up somewhat from their early-spring low. As of the week ended June 4, Freddie Mac reported the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 6.48%. The forecasts come as financial markets continue to worry about stubbornly above-target inflation. Mortgage rates are heavily influenced by Treasury yields—particularly the 10-year Treasury note—as well as market