Goldman Sachs Lowers Oil Outlook as Strait of Hormuz Reopening Accelerates Supply Recovery
Key takeaways
- The investment bank now expects oil exports from the Persian Gulf to return to pre-conflict levels by the end of July, bringing forward its previous assumption of a recovery by the end of August.
- As a result, Goldman lowered its forecast for Brent crude in the fourth quarter of 2026 to $80 per barrel from $90 previously.
- According to Goldman, bringing supply normalization forward by one month lowers the fair value estimate for crude oil by roughly $10 per barrel for late 2026 and around $5 per barrel for 2027.
Goldman Sachs Lowers Oil Outlook as Strait of Hormuz Reopening Accelerates Supply Recovery Fiona Craig Sun, June 21, 2026 at 10:21 PM GMT+7 2 min read CL=F Oil pump at dusk ©Pick Pik Goldman Sachs has reduced its oil price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 after President Trump announced an interim agreement that would end the U.S. blockade and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with a formal signing expected on Friday.
The investment bank now expects oil exports from the Persian Gulf to return to pre-conflict levels by the end of July, bringing forward its previous assumption of a recovery by the end of August.
As a result, Goldman lowered its forecast for Brent crude in the fourth quarter of 2026 to $80 per barrel from $90 previously. Its average Brent forecast for 2027 was cut to $75 from $80. The bank also reduced its projections for WTI, now expecting prices to average $75 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 and $70 in 2027.