Luther Burden III among 11 players who will score ...
Key takeaways
- Football statistics are extremely hard to predict, but history continues to show that projecting touchdown regression to the mean is significantly easier than you might imagine.
- During the 2012 to 2024 seasons, there were 178 instances in which a wide receiver or tight end scored fewer than five touchdowns on 50-plus offensive touches before managing at least 50 touches the very next season.
- Focusing in on the 48 players in that group who scored fewer than three touchdowns during the first year, 39 (81.3%) scored more touchdowns the next season.
Why this matters: a sports story that could shift standings, legacies, or fan conversations.
Luther Burden III is positioned for success in his second NFL season. Terence Lewis/Icon Sportswire Mike Clay Jun 26, 2026, 08:11 AM ETClose Mike Clay is a senior writer for fantasy football and the NFL at ESPN. Mike is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. His projections power the ESPN Fantasy Football game, and he also appears on "Fantasy Football Now" and the Fantasy Focus Football podcast.Follow on XMultiple Authors Email Print Open Extended Reactions Editor's Note: As you get ready for fantasy football 2026, be sure to get plenty of practice by using our Mock Draft Lobby and keep track of Mike Clay's updated projections throughout the season.
Football statistics are extremely hard to predict, but history continues to show that projecting touchdown regression to the mean is significantly easier than you might imagine.
During the 2012 to 2024 seasons, there were 178 instances in which a wide receiver or tight end scored fewer than five touchdowns on 50-plus offensive touches before managing at least 50 touches the very next season. Of those 178, 118 (66.3%) scored more touchdowns the next season.