ABS estimates 80pc of tobacco consumed in Australia last year was illegally sourced

The illegal tobacco market has flourished. (ABC News: Grace Burmas) An estimated 80 per cent of the cigarettes and vapes consumed in Australia last year were illegal, according to the ABS. Treasury downgraded tobacco excise revenue by $8 billion over the next five years in the latest federal budget. Criminologists say the findings highlight a "massive policy failure and require a radical rethink" of tobacco laws. Link copiedShareShare articleAn estimated 80 per cent of the cigarettes and vapes consumed in Australia last year were illegal, according to the Bureau of Statistics, which has analysed the "rapid growth" of the black market for the first time. The ABS analysis found nicotine consumption increased by almost 40 per cent between 2017 and 2025, while household spending on legal tobacco products fell dramatically over the same period. After an arranged marriage to tobacco baron Sam Albion, Kawther Salih says the relationship spiralled into an abusive situation that saw her subjugated into working in the underground tobacco industry. "The increase was underpinned by a large rise in illicit cigarettes as well as increases in e-cigarettes and other nicotine products," the ABS analysis found. "Consumption from illicit sources, as a share of total tobacco consumed, rose from 12 per cent in 2017 to 80 per cent in 2025." The experimental estimates are based on "nicotine metabolite concentrations" detected in wastewater samples, combined with data showing a collapse in spending on legal cigarettes and vapes. In its analysis, the ABS points out prices for legal tobacco have almost tripled since 2016, driven by steep increases in the excise, which experts blame for creating a black market that has spiralled out of control. "These numbers put it in the most stark terms possible," said James Martin, a Deakin University criminologist who described the findings as "absolutely staggering". "This is a massive policy failure and requires a radical rethink. "It's simply not possible to enforce your way out of a mess of this size." Australia has among the highest cigarette prices in the world, with the tax alone increasing by more than 200 per cent in the past decade. Illegal cigarettes can sell for about $25 a pack. (Supplied: Australian Border Force) The excise is now worth $1.52 per stick (more than 80 per cent of the total cost), pushing the price of a packet of 25 cigarettes well over the $50 mark. Under-the-counter cigarettes sell for around $25 a pack and are being imported in huge quantities, mainly from Asia and the Middle East. Tax has been the cornerstone of efforts to drive down smoking rates in Australia from about 25 per cent of adults in the early 2000s, to around 10 per cent today, which is why public health experts are in favour of a high excise. Historically, the tax was increased twice yearly in line with inflation, but in 2010 — along with its plain-packaging reforms — the federal government started taking a more aggressive approach. In that year, the tax was increased by 25 per cent, followed by annual hikes of 12.5 per cent between 2013 and 2020. These hikes were in addition to the twice-yearly increases, which are now pegged to average earnings rather than inflation. Critics say the steep increases have pushed Australians to a black market that is robbing the federal budget of billions of dollars and forcing legitimate retailers to shut down. In the latest federal budget, Treasury downgraded tobacco excise revenue by $8 billion over the next five years. While the Coalition is open to reducing the tobacco excise to encourage smokers to shift to the legal product, the Albanese government has resisted calls to change tack. Instead, it has focused on bolstering enforcement at the border, appointing an Illicit Tobacco and E-cigarette Commissioner, whose latest report estimated illegal cigarettes and vapes made up 60 per cent of the total market. "Estimated excise evaded ranges from $7.7 billion to $11.8 billion," the report stated. Last year, more than 2.66 billion illegal cigarettes were seized at the border, up from 480 million in 2016. Copy linkFacebookX (formerly Twitter)Top StoriesNeo-Nazi Thomas Sewell broadcasting hate on Instagram from Victorian acreageTopic:Extremism

ABS estimates 80pc of tobacco consumed in Australia last year was illegally sourced

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ABS estimates 80pc of tobacco consumed in Australia last year was illegally sourced

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