U.S. likely gained 65,000 jobs in April, despite uncertainty from war in Iran

The Iran war has caused the biggest disruption of global oil supplies in history and sent average U.S. gasoline prices surging past $4.50 a gallon this week.But the conflict hasn’t done much damage to the American job market – at least not yet.When the Labor Department’s report on April hiring and unemployment comes out Friday, it’s expected to show that U.S. companies, nonprofits and government agencies together added 65,000 jobs last month, according to a survey of forecasters by the data firm FactSet. That would be down from a surprisingly strong 178,000 in March.Ordinarily, 65,000 net new jobs a month would be unimpressive. But these are not ordinary times. Baby Boomer retirements and President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown mean that fewer people are competing for work and that the economy doesn’t need to generate as many jobs as it used to.Matthew Martin of Oxford Economics says the so-called break-even point — the number of new jobs required each month to keep the unemployment rate from rising — is now near zero. The jobless rate is expected, in fact, to have remained at a low 4.3% in April, according to FactSet.After the U.S. and Israel launched their attacks Feb. 28, Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passes. The disruption has caused a painful increase in the price of energy and led many economists to downgrade their estimates for global and U.S. economic growth.But the fallout isn’t showing up yet in the U.S. job market.Payroll processor ADP reported Wednesday that private employers added a solid 109,000 jobs in April. The ADP figure isn’t a reliable guide to what the Labor Department will report Friday – but the pace of hiring it showed was the fastest since January 2025. And on Tuesday the Labor Department reported that a measure of gross hiring – before subtracting those who left or lost their jobs – was stronger in March tha