Armenians Vote Under Russia’s Shadow

Get audio access with any FP subscription. For centuries, outside powers have competed for control in Armenia, a small South Caucasus nation wedged between Turkey, Iran, and Russia. Armenia’s upcoming parliamentary election is the latest chapter in that struggle. Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan ahead of the parliamentary elections in a Truth Social post, reflecting the growing stakes of a race that has drawn unprecedented attention from Washington and Moscow. For centuries, outside powers have competed for control in Armenia, a small South Caucasus nation wedged between Turkey, Iran, and Russia. Armenia’s upcoming parliamentary election is the latest chapter in that struggle. Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan ahead of the parliamentary elections in a Truth Social post, reflecting the growing stakes of a race that has drawn unprecedented attention from Washington and Moscow. More than five years after Armenia’s defeat in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War with Azerbaijan and two years after the collapse of Nagorno-Karabakh, a satellite state of Yerevan’s that called itself the Republic of Artsakh, voters are being asked to decide not only who governs the country, but whether Armenia continues its turn toward the West or drifts back into Russia’s sphere of influence. “The West is promoting their interests; Russia is promoting their interests. But where is the Armenian interest?” noted Tevan Poghosyan, a former member of parliament and former representative of the unrecognized Artsakh Republic to the United States, who has been sharply critical of the current government’s record. Last year, after three decades of Moscow’s failed efforts, the United States stepped in to broker a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, ending one of the post-Soviet world’s longest-running conflicts. Washington has also backed the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), a transportation corridor designed to connect Azerbaijan’s mainland to its exclave of Nakhchivan through Armenian territory, continuing onward through Turkey and linking the region to broader East-West trade networks via railway, road, and pipeline infrastructure. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, following U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance’s trip in February, traveled to Yerevan to sign a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement and formally launch implementation of the route. Trump’s words matter, said Stepan Grigoryan, a Yerevan-based political scientist, but Moscow’s pressure is what people feel in their daily lives. “Russia’s pressure is concrete,” he said. “It’s hitting people in the pocket.” In recent weeks, Russia has resorted to a common tactic, imposing restrictions on a growing list of Armenian exports—including fruit, vegetables, flowers, wine, brandy, and mineral water. According to Western intelligence assessments and investigative reporting, the Kremlin has devoted an estimated $50 million to influence the election. The operation reportedly combines fake media outlets, coordinated social media networks, and AI-generated content that have spread claims such as that Pashinyan secretly purchased a luxury property in France and plans to bury radioactive waste in Armenia, as well as directing child-trafficking accusations at senior officials. Reports have also warned Moscow is seeking to mobilize members of the country’s substantial diaspora in Russia, potentially transporting thousands of dual citizens back to Armenia to vote for opposition parties. The campaign has been accompanied by increasingly direct warnings from the Kremlin. Speaking on Victory Day, when Russia celebrates the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in World War II, Russian President Vladimir Putin drew parallels between Armenia’s European aspirations and Ukraine’s path toward the West, cautioning that similar geopolitical choices had ultimately led to instability, conflict, and war. “For three months straight there has been a campaign against the Armenian government on Russian TV channels. Now Putin himself has gotten involved,” Grigoryan said. “And a large number of Armenians with dual citizenship are being sent to Armenia to vote for pro-Russian forces. This is being declared almost openly.” For decades, Russia was Armenia’s primary security guarantor, maintaining a military base in Gyumri, controlling large segments of the country’s energy infrastructure, and, until recently, overseeing key border crossings with Turkey and Iran through Russian border guards. But after Russia’s failure to prevent Armenia’s crippling defeat in 2020, Pashinyan has gradually sought to loosen that dependence. Russian guards have been removed from Yerevan’s airport and border checkpoints, though they remain stationed along parts of Armenia’s borders. Armenia has frozen its participation in the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organ

Armenians Vote Under Russia’s Shadow

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Armenians Vote Under Russia’s Shadow

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