The Math That Should Terrify Index Investors: AI Chips Account for Nearly All S&P 500 Gains
Key takeaways
- The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 stocks and AMD wasn t one of them.
- Here is the data point that should make every passive index investor pause.
- The actual SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) has returned 41% over the two years ending May 22, 2026, validating the host s framing.
The Math That Should Terrify Index Investors: AI Chips Account for Nearly All S&P 500 Gains Joel South Mon, May 25, 2026 at 6:39 PM GMT+7 4 min read NVDA AMD SPY MSFT PLTR Quick Read NVIDIA (NVDA) generated 102% returns over two years while trading at 33x trailing earnings and disclosed $119B in supply commitments; AMD (AMD) surged 181% at a 156x forward P/E on a $762B market cap; SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) returned 41% but would have returned only 16% excluding AI infrastructure companies.
The S&P 500’s 26-point return advantage comes entirely from AI-related megacaps at stretched valuations while the 10-year Treasury yields 5%, consumer sentiment has fallen to recessionary levels, and the VIX sits below its 12-month average, creating a concentration risk that retirement portfolios may not tolerate.
The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 stocks and AMD wasn t one of them. Get them here FREE.