PMD forecasts below-normal rainfall, high temperatures across most of country until September

The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) on Monday extended its forecast of below-normal rainfall and higher-than-normal temperatures across most parts of the country from July to September. The PMD said in its three-month outlook, available with Dawn, that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently in a neutral phase and is expected to gradually transition into a positive phase during the season. Meanwhile, sea surface temperatures over the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean are currently exhibiting a warming trend, indicating the development of El Niño conditions, which are generally associated with suppressed rainfall anomalies over Pakistan. “Current projections suggest that these warming conditions are likely to persist throughout the July–September 2026 period, with a tendency to strengthen further as the season progresses,” the PMD report said. The report noted that a positive IOD phase is generally associated with slightly above-normal monsoon rainfall over Pakistan. “However, owing to the anticipated late development of the positive IOD conditions, its influence on the overall monsoon rainfall over the country may remain limited,” it added. The PMD’s forecast indicated a general tendency for “normal to below-normal rainfall across much of the country” during the forecast period, with the lowest negative departures expected in northeastern Punjab and adjoining areas. This was reinforced by its probabilistic rainfall outlook, which forecast the likelihood of below-normal rainfall in most parts of the country, including Punjab, Sindh, southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and most parts of Balochistan. In contrast, Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir, and upper KP are likely to receive normal to slightly above-normal rainfall, it added. Comparative maps showing normal versus predicted rainfall in Pakistan. — via PMD Meanwhile, the mean temperatures are expected to remain above normal throughout the country, the report said, with maximum departure over northeastern Pun