Oil markets could be a month away from the moment of truth. Brace for a ‘non-linear’ price spike and panic buying, analysts warn

Dire warnings about oil supplies are coming from everywhere lately as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed while President Donald Trump’s trip to China failed to produce a breakthrough to reopen the critical waterway. While investors have been trading on hopes that the Iran ceasefire will remain intact, there is little sign that the oil trade will return to normal soon, forcing them to reckon with the reality of worsening shortages and an imminent tipping point ahead. JPMorgan predicted that commercial oil inventories in the developed world could “approach operational stress levels” by early June. Saudi Aramco said global inventories of gasoline and jet fuel could reach “critically low levels” ahead of the summer. The International Energy Agency warned the world is drawing down oil inventories at a record pace, with 164 million barrels released by governments and industry as of May 8. “Rapidly shrinking buffers amid continued disruptions may herald future price spikes ahead,” IEA said in its lately monthly report. The U.S. and Israel launched their war on Iran two and a half months ago, and analysts expected the Strait of Hormuz to reopen by the end of May or early June. That’s looking less likely as Iran attacks ships in the Persian Gulf while the U.S. military is still enforcing a blockade on Iranian oil. Meanwhile, the Navy’s efforts to reopen the strait with warships is on hold. An F-35B Lighting II, attached to Marine Fighter Attack Squadron (VMFA) 121, takes off from the flight deck of America-class amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli (LHA 7), May 13, 2026. U.S. Navy “But if the Strait remains effectively closed and commercial oil inventories in the OECD continue to be run down at the same pace as they were in April, oil stocks could reach critically low levels by the end of June,” Hamad Hussain, climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, said in a note on Wednesday. “That would be