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Strait of Hormuz traffic to return to normal as soon as August, Kalshi traders speculate

CNBC · Jun 15, 2026, 1:20 PM · Also reported by 4 other sources

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  • Odds that the Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal before August surpassed 50% after U.S.
  • Chances that the strait's traffic will return to normal before August sit at 58% on Kalshi.

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Odds that the Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal before August surpassed 50% after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a deal with Iran on Sunday, which includes reopening the strait.

Chances that the strait's traffic will return to normal before August sit at 58% on Kalshi. The last time those odds were that high was in late May. Other markets also saw jumps, with a 75% probability that traffic will return to normal before the end of this year.

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