Which character will die in ‘Euphoria’? Polymarket bettors think they know—and maybe some actually do

On prediction markets, users can bet on anything and everything. But for those swinging big wins, is it just luck? Some users don’t seem to think so. In one recent event contract on Polymarket, users are wagering on the final storylines for the characters in the latest season of Euphoria, creator Sam Levinson’s HBO series about the messy lives of young people. The market, titled “Who will die in Euphoria: Season 3?,” ranks Nate Jacobs (played by Jacob Elordi) and Rue Bennett (the lead character, played by Zendaya) as the characters with the highest likelihood of dying this season, at 82% and 61%, respectively. Set to resolve by May 31, the same day as the season finale, the market will require the specified character to die on-screen or have their death explicitly stated in order for those betting “yes” to take their winnings. While betting on a popular TV show seems ripe for prediction markets, some users are worried that those with ties to the show could have an added edge. “Insider trading?” a user commented on the market. Another jokingly replied saying “I’m one of the actors but wont tell you which one.” Insider betting is hard to prove While it’s hard to prove whether any manipulation is happening or not, it is understandable why such suspicion might arise, as writers or staffers or others connected in some way with the show could potentially earn thousands of dollars by using their privileged information. A review of the top holders of people betting yes on character deaths reveals that they only have positions in other Euphoria-related markets, while those betting no have a more diverse portfolio of positions. There is still some time to go until this particular market is resolved, but the suspicions voiced by some commenters once again highlight worries about insider trading within the larger prediction market industry. Polymarket declined to comment on the Euphoria bets. In the past, i