Fed’s Long-Term Inflation Forecast Hits 19-Year High
Key takeaways
- The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 stocks and SPDR S&P 500 ETF wasn t one of them.
- For much of the past two years, Wall Street treated long-run inflation expectations as the boring part of the macro story.
- The interesting part is what that 19-year-old fingerprint actually means.
Fed’s Long-Term Inflation Forecast Hits 19-Year High Omor Ibne Ehsan Thu, May 21, 2026 at 11:24 PM GMT+7 5 min read SPY JPM NVDA Quick Read SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) trading at historical multiples compressed from 16-18 to 14-15 when ten-year inflation breakevens reached 3%, a pattern that preceded the 2008 financial crisis when long-run expectations last hit current levels 19 years ago.
Cleveland Fed’s five-year inflation expectation hit a 19-year high amid 3.8% headline CPI and 3.2% core PCE, signaling structural price pressures rather than temporary supply-chain disruptions that historically compressed equity valuations before earnings fell.
The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 stocks and SPDR S&P 500 ETF wasn t one of them. Get them here FREE.