I spent 8 years flood-proofing a city. Capital markets are running out of time to take El Niño seriously

Federal forecasters put the odds of a strong El Niño this winter at roughly two in three, and the odds of one matching or exceeding the record 2015 event at better than one in three. That forecast is worth taking seriously. But the bigger story is that resilience infrastructure has quietly become a distinct investment category — and capital markets have been slow to treat it that way. A strong El Niño will make ignoring that gap even more expensive. I served as mayor of Hoboken for eight years. The lesson I took from that job: the financial case for resilience is almost always stronger than people assume. When a city manages physical risk well, it protects property values, the tax base, business continuity, and credit quality at the same time. When it does not, all four take a hit at once. In Hoboken, we built ResilienCity Park on the site of a former chemical plant. The park combines green space with underground stormwater detention systems that can hold roughly two million gallons during a major rain event. It is one of several projects the city pursued under the broader Rebuild by Design effort following Superstorm Sandy. The result was less flooding, faster recovery after storms, and fewer disruptions for residents and businesses. During my tenure, S&P Global Ratings repeatedly affirmed Hoboken’s AA+ credit rating, citing the city’s resilience investments and its approach to long-term environmental risk. The demand for this kind of work has grown well beyond what any city, state, or federal program can fund alone. Boston Consulting Group has projected that annual demand for resilience-focused investment could reach $3 trillion by 2030, with the cost of inaction up to 15 times more expensive. A survey BCG ran with the Rockefeller Foundation found that more than four in ten institutional investors across the major markets now identify adaptation and resilience as a theme they want exposure to. Rating agencies, including Moody’s, are incorporating