Tomatoflation is the latest extreme price increase to hit grocery bills. The reasons why are alarming

Grocery prices keep rising, and one ingredient crucial to BLTs, salads, and fresh salsas has gotten particularly expensive. Tomato prices are up a staggering 40% compared to a year ago, according to the latest Consumer Price Index. Fresh vegetables in general have gotten more expensive—up nearly 12% from a year ago—and prices for groceries like coffee (up 18.5%) and beef (up about 15%) have all increased. But tomatoes in particular stand out, with prices hitting $2.69 per pound in April, the highest level reported in the last 45 years. That price shock is thanks to simultaneous supply-chain disruptions: extreme weather, tariffs, and the conflict in Iran’s effect on fuel prices. Extreme weather caused crop damage “Tomatoes are very susceptible to environmental conditions,” says Rudolf Leuschner, an associate professor in Rutgers Business School’s department of supply chain management. A hot December followed by fog and rain throughout Mexico—where an estimated 70% of fresh tomatoes consumed in the U.S. originate from—slowed down this year’s tomato crop yield. (In Mexico, tomato inflation there exceeded 100% from January to April.) Unseasonably cold weather in Florida also played a part. Winter storms in January and February brought “widespread and unexpected damage” across the state, according to the Florida Department of Agriculture, causing more than $3 billion in damages to not only tomatoes but also strawberries, watermelons, citrus, and more. Experts have long warned that extreme weather is affecting crops around the world. Climate change makes events from droughts to floods more intense and frequent, and temperature changes can even shift where crops are best suited to grow. Tariffs and energy prices play a part Tariffs are also at play. The majority of tomatoes consumed in the U.S. come from Mexico, and President Donald Trump put a 17% tariff on tomato imports. Leuschner estimates that that means about 10% of tomatoes’ 40% year-over-year price increase is a re