Why Would Europeans Believe Trump Now?

Europe, which for nearly eight decades counted the United States as its military guarantor, just received a lesson in the fickleness of American power.Last week, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth abruptly canceled the deployment of an armored brigade to what the Pentagon often describes as a “model ally,” Poland. The move caught senior members of the Polish government by surprise. Because European officials were never briefed on the change, they were left to speculate about possible motivations: Perhaps the decision was a product of MAGA’s generalized disdain for Europe. Or maybe it was specific payback for Europe’s failure to help with the Trump administration’s war with Iran.The Pentagon’s press office rushed to frame the decision as a carefully calculated modification of America’s force posture in Europe. But that was a harder argument to sell after top Army leaders told Capitol Hill they had learned only days earlier of the decision, which had been made above their heads.Regardless, the Pentagon pressed ahead. Elbridge Colby, the undersecretary of defense for policy, said Thursday on social media that he had met with the Poles to reemphasize “our message that the U.S. is driving real burden-sharing for a European-led conventional defense.”Minutes later, President Trump reversed the cancellation. He explained his choice not in terms of geopolitical strategy but as stemming from his personal fondness for the country’s right-wing president. “Based on the successful Election of the now President of Poland, Karol Nawrocki, who I was proud to Endorse, and our relationship with him, I am pleased to announce that the United States will be sending an additional 5,000 Troops to Poland,” Trump wrote on social media. “Thank you for your attention to this matter!”The announcement provoked disbelief in Europe: the rapid about-face, the personalized approach to war planning, and the lack of coordination between the president and his own secretary of defense. “This isn’t even a po