‘Blue dot fever’? What's really behind a tricky summer dynamic for live music

LivestreamMenuMake ItselectUSAINTLLivestreamSearch quotes, news & videosLivestreamWatchlistSIGN INCreate free accountMarketsBusinessInvestingTechPoliticsVideoWatchlistInvesting ClubPROLivestreamMenu This summer, mega artist Harry Styles will take the stage at Madison Square Garden in New York City for an exclusive 30-show residency – his only planned stop in the country and a show that's garnered intense attention since its announcement. Despite her best efforts, Shira Elfassy won't be there. "His tickets were absurd," Elfassy, 29, told CNBC. "It felt like an insult going in and seeing, like, not only can I not get in, not only are there no tickets left, but even then, the most basic price point is $500 for a nose-bleed seat — and this is becoming commonplace." Instead, Elfassy said she got tickets to see other artists live, like Florence + the Machine and Olivia Rodrigo, at far lower price points. She said feeling "priced out" of some concerts is now a common occurrence. "It's just a weird dynamic now. ... At this point, if I have to make the decision between making more summer plans or hanging out with my friends — or even just [to] pay rent — or I can go to this concert, it's a no-brainer," she said. "But it didn't used to be that way." Elfassy represents a growing cohort of consumers who aren't willing to keep up with the rising prices for live music, creating a K-shaped demand curve where higher-income consumers are spending more — and keeping prices inflated — while lower-income consumers are pulling back. That dynamic has played out across discretionary spending categories, like retail, dining and travel, as Americans grapple with persistent inflation, economic uncertainty and, now, soaring gas prices. In live music, this K-shaped environment is spurring fears that the lower end of the market is falling out entirely. Some are calling the demand shifts "blue dot fever," named for the blue dots on Ticketmaster seating maps that denote an unsold ticket. For some artists, it's forcing them to take a critical look at their performances. Post Malone, Zayn and The Pussycat Dolls are just a few examples of artists who have canceled shows or tours in recent months, with the last group openly admitting that poor ticket sales was the catalyst. Last summer, even before the most recent pricing pressures, industry research suggested higher ticket prices were helping to prop up the overall health of the market. Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a 2025 report that demand for live music was expected to grow at a 7.2% compounded annual growth rate between 2024 and 2030. Average ticket price for a concert in one of the top 100 global tours, the report found, was $136 in 2024, up 50% from an average of $91 in 2019. Several of the major ticketing companies told CNBC they're not seeing more show cancellations this summer than an average year. "Of all the shows Live Nation has on the books this year, less than 1% have been cancelled," a spokesperson for the Ticketmaster parent said. "That's not 'blue dot fever' — it's a normal touring year; in fact, 2026 is shaping up to be a record with concert ticket sales up 11% for the year." The spokesperson added that roughly 70% of tickets sold on its platform are priced under $100. Live Nation and Ticketmaster have faced scrutiny over the company's ticketing practices and dominant influence in the music industry. The company faced legal challenges over alleged anticompetitive behavior and reached a settlement with the Department of Justice in March. A federal jury found last month that Live Nation held an anticompetitive monopoly, though the company said in a statement at the time, "The jury's verdict is not the last word on this matter." StubHub, a ticket reseller, told CNBC that the company is seeing the K-shaped pattern take shape in live music, with demand diverging fast between various events. While StubHub said overall concert demand is up nearly 10% year-over-year, it's not across the board. Ticket demand for stadium-scale events is up significantly, while demand for mid-size and smaller venues is waning. The events that are struggling to sell are facing a "supply-sizing problem," according to Jill Gonzalez, head of consumer communications at StubHub. The events earning the strongest fan attention, she said, are stadium tours, residencies and marquee festivals. "What our data makes clear is that fan demand for live music hasn't softened, but it's sharpened," Gonzalez told CNBC. "Fans are making deliberate choices about where they spend, and when they decide a show is worth it, the demand signal is as strong as anything we've seen on our platform." Ticket platform SeatGeek said while more artists are announcing tours, the resale environment remains healthy. "If you have more artists that are flooding the market with tours, you're going to have the gross number of cancellations pick up year-over-year, so that's expected," said Oliver Marvin, the company's se

‘Blue dot fever’? What's really behind a tricky summer dynamic for live music

Key takeaways

Also covered by

‘Blue dot fever’? What's really behind a tricky summer dynamic for live music

Key takeaways

Also covered by

More in business