Europe’s jet fuel supplies should fall below the key 23-day shortage threshold in June, so plan your travel accordingly
Europe is weeks away from crossing a critical threshold that represents a severe and immediate shortage of jet fuel, triggering many more flight cancelations and even the possible closures of smaller airports. A new Goldman Sachs research report estimates that Europe’s commercial jet fuel inventories are slated to dip below the International Energy Agency’s critical 23-day shortage threshold sometime in June. “The U.K. appears most at risk of jet fuel rationing given its large net imports,” the report argued. The threshold doesn’t mean Europe will run out of fuel supplies 23 days from that point—that would only occur without any replenishments. But it does mean global crude and fuel supplies are running dryer each day from the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the war in Iran. Europe could, for instance, dip below a more dire 20-day limit by July, resulting in more drastic rationing, and maybe 15 days by August. Because European refineries have begun churning out higher percentages of jet fuel—refineries typically pump out much more gasoline and diesel—the more dire consequences aren’t likely to hit European airlines and their passengers until July or August, said Claudio Galimberti, Rystad Energy chief economist. “We’re still kind of sleepwalking into this approaching disaster. There is little doubt there is going to be a disaster,” Galimberti told Fortune. “Unless we normalize Hormuz, there will be a shortage at some point in Asia. Europe has this additional buffer with the refineries that affords them a few more weeks, which is vital.” Jet fuel inventories at the European benchmark of Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp are down 50% since the start of the war at the end of February, he said. “It is very concerning. It’s been a straight line down, and it will continue to be like that for at least the next few weeks no matter what we do.” Already, many tens of thousands of flights have been canceled for this summer. Most notably, Lufthansa axed 20,000 flights th