India’s pursuit of nuclear dominance

THE latest SIPRI report marks a major shift in India’s nuclear strategy. Reportedly, 12 Indian nuclear warheads are now classified as operationally deployed for the first time, mated with delivery systems and operational forces driven by canisterized missile systems and submarines. India’s nuclear triad—land, air and sea—is maturing rapidly. Although officially India’s No First Use doctrine, stated in 2003, remains unchanged, the country’s posture is evolving. The induction of ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) and always-ready canisterized missiles are the two key drivers of this shift, both signaling a more responsive and survivable nuclear force. However, deploying missiles mated with warheads represents serious danger, threatening broader regional security interests. India`s stated nuclear doctrine is based on a pledge that the country will not use nuclear weapons first, but with a notable caveat that it may use them in case of attacks on Indian forces with chemical or biological weapons. Over the years, Indian government officials and various strategists have often held the NFU policy to represent the country`s status as a responsible nuclear state. At the same time, they have often advocated the abandonment of the country`s NFU commitment, suggesting that strict adherence to the NFU policy does not serve India’s interests, therefore, India may be the first to launch a nuclear attack during a military crisis. Notably, the Indian Defense Minister in 2019 said that despite the declared policy, the future policy will depend on the situation. To this end, canisterization is the first step of the approaches that the decision makers adopt to enhance the first-use options, as it is considered a key prerequisite for a rapid launch/deployment. Canisterizing is the storing of missiles inside a tube, called a canister, so that the missile can be protected from the elements while being transported. This makes for easier handling of the missile. For years, it was assumed