Lux Capital cofounder Josh Wolfe’s limited-odds, high-stakes 2027 predictions

We’re a little over halfway through 2026, and frankly, so far it’s been a weird year. I was thinking about that in the context of this week’s Term Sheet Podcast with Josh Wolfe, Lux Capital cofounder and backer of companies like Anduril, Applied Intuition, Hugging Face, Impulse Space, Osmo, and Physical Intelligence. Wolfe invests with a broad lens—often both scientific and geopolitical—and he had some combustible predictions for the remainder of this strange year through 2027. The first of his predictions: Warren Buffett will die soon, and we could see a crisis in the Nasdaq. “I believe we’ll see a headline—possibly the end of this year, maybe early next, a sad but realistic one—which is I think Warren Buffett dies,” Wolfe said. “And the headline says something like ‘reports of the death of Buffett were not exaggerated, but the reports of the death of value investing were.’” Value investing—an investment strategy that emphasizes buying stocks trading below their intrinsic value—in recent years has fallen out of favor. So, here’s what Wolfe believes could happen: Tech mega-caps are more fragile than they look, and the widespread adoption of index investing has created a market structure that automatically and indiscriminately bolsters the largest companies. So, if there’s a sweeping Nasdaq decline (say, 10% to 15%) concentrated heavily in the Magnificent 7, it could create a crisis—and an opening for value investors. He calls this scenario a “lower probability, high magnitude outcome,” relatively unlikely but consequential. “I don’t know if it’s going to be Dan Loeb or David Einhorn or my wife, Lauren Taylor Wolfe, or some other value investor,” Wolfe said. “It might be some new person, but people suddenly say: ‘Oh my god, how are they outperforming by 30 basis points, 300 basis points? When the market’s down 15, and they’re up 15. I do think that we see a scenario that would be unexpected in that shift from passive growth, which has be