Pakistan likely to face hotter summer, reduced rainfall

Pakistan will likely receive below-normal rainfall and higher-than-normal temperatures during the June to August period. Synoptic Situation According to the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is presently neutral but is expected to enter a positive phase by July 2026. At the same time, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has shifted into an El Niño phase and is forecast to intensify further over the coming months. Forecast Under these conditions, below-normal rainfall is likely in most regions, especially Punjab, Sindh, southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and large parts of Balochistan. However, northern areas — including Gilgit-Baltistan, adjoining northern KP regions and Kashmir — may receive near-normal to slightly above-normal rainfall. Meanwhile, temperatures across the country are expected to stay above seasonal averages throughout the JJA months. The greatest rise is forecast for northeastern regions, particularly eastern Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir and nearby areas of northern Punjab. The PMD’s temperature outlook further indicated a high probability of hotter-than-normal conditions in many parts of the country, especially Sindh, southeastern Balochistan and central to northeastern Punjab. In contrast, western Gilgit-Baltistan may experience comparatively cooler conditions. Impacts Below-normal rainfall could create moisture shortages for Kharif crops during sowing and early growth stages, potentially affecting rain-fed agriculture and increasing reliance on irrigation. At the same time, higher rainfall in upper catchment areas may improve reservoir levels, helping maintain water supplies for farming and electricity generation. Heavy rainfall in northern mountainous and flood-prone regions could trigger flash floods and landslides, while low-lying urban areas in major cities may face flooding risks. Hot and humid weather, combined with intermittent rain spells in southern regions, could heighten the spread of vector-borne disea