Putin's 'paranoia': 'He's fearful of Ukrainians & afraid the elite around him is starting to break'

Mark Owen is pleased to welcome Melinda Haring, Expert on Ukraine, non-resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center and Senior Advisor to Razom Advocacy's advisory board. According to Haring, the psychological and military balance between Russia and Ukraine is shifting. Her central argument, in the leadup to Russia’s May 9 Victory Day celebrations, is that the Kremlin’s increasingly defensive posture reveals a profound shift in the war: “Vladimir Putin is finally afraid.” Haring frames the Victory Day parade not as a display of triumphant state power, but as a diminished and anxious spectacle. The contrast she draws is vivid and politically consequential: “A year ago, the celebration in Red Square was big and bold… This year, it’s not big. It’s not bold. It’s going to be kind of pathetic and they’re fearful.” In her telling, Ukraine’s rapid advances in drone warfare and long-range strike capabilities have altered not only the battlefield, but the psychological architecture of the Kremlin itself. Beyond military developments, Haring focuses on the realm of political psychology and elite instability. She paints a portrait of an increasingly isolated Russian president whose paranoia has deepened under the pressures of war, technological vulnerability, and internal power struggles. “He’s not only afraid of the Ukrainians wanting to whack him,” she argues, “he’s afraid that the elite around him is starting to break.” Perhaps most compelling is her broader reframing of the war narrative itself. Rather than accepting the mythology of Soviet military grandeur traditionally embodied in Victory Day commemorations, Haring redirects attention toward “the defenders of Ukraine and what they’ve been able to accomplish with so little.” The interview thus becomes not only an assessment of military realities, but also an exploration of symbolic power, perception, fear, and the erosion of authoritarian confidence under prolonged war.