People loved moving to Tasmania during the pandemic — but not anymore

Now living in Queensland, Ellie Warmbrunn has no plans to return to Tasmania. (ABC News: Glenn Mullane) Tasmania's population growth has slowed sharply since its pandemic‑era boom, with the state now recording the lowest growth rate in the country. Experts warn natural population decline and an ageing population could pose long‑term economic and workforce challenges. The Tasmanian government says it's on track to meet a target of 650,000 people by 2050, while commentators say improvements to health and education are key to attracting people to the state. Link copiedShareShare articleBetween 2016 and 2021, Tasmania was the place to be, or move to. Almost 50,000 people were added to the state's population in that time. That may not sound like much compared with bigger states, but during that period, Tasmania outpaced the nation in population growth. In September 2025, Tasmania's annual growth rate was only 0.3 per cent, the lowest in the country. The Centre for Population is predicting that by 2028-29, Tasmania will be the first state in Australia to enter natural decline, in which deaths outnumber births. Tasmania's Treasury warns if population growth remains low or even declines, it could be a risk to the economy. (Pixabay: Marisa Sias) More young adults are expected to continue to leave Tasmania, and overseas migration will be the main driver of modest population growth in the future, according to the centre. "When a large majority of our young people in Tasmania are actually born overseas and likely to be on temporary visas in Tasmania, it's unlikely that they are going to be in family formation decision-making processes," Dr Denny said. Tasmanian Treasury papers warn that if population growth remains low or even declines, it could be a risk to the economy and "exacerbate existing challenges faced by the state, including skill shortages and the ageing population." For every Tasmanian arrival and departure, there is an individual reason behind the move. Milly Willemsen and Nick Wagner came to Tasmania in 2018 with plans to "buckle down". They arrived from Moreton Island in Queensland with $500, a car and no qualifications. Milly Willemsen and Nick Wagner. (ABC News: Mackenzie Heard) Determined to get into the housing market, Mr Wagner took on an adult apprenticeship in welding and flipped mountain bikes on the side. "We bought the cheapest house we could possibly afford and basically just made it work," he said. The couple now have two kids and said that while accessing childcare in Burnie was a problem, overall their move to Tasmania had been a success. The couple describe the small city of Burnie as like growing up in Melbourne in the 90s. "There's milk bars on corners, there's active footy clubs, everyone says hello," Mr Wagner said. Milly Willemsen and Nick Wagner are building a life in Burnie, on Tasmania's north-west coast. (ABC News: Mackenzie Heard) On the flip side, like many young Tasmanians, 22-year-old Ellie Warmbrunn has left the state. Ellie Warmbrunn is enjoying the sun in Queensland. (ABC News: Glenn Mullane) She's working and studying on Queensland's Gold Coast. "I'm doing journalism and creative writing, and I also work up here as a model," she said. Ms Warmbrunn said she was enjoying the Queensland lifestyle — and would be there "for the foreseeable future". Ms Warmbrunn said while she missed her family in Tasmania, she had no plans to return at this stage. The Tasmanian government says it is on track to meet a target of 650,000 people by 2050. (ABC News: Luke Bowden) Even though Tasmania's population growth has plateaued since 2021, the state has seen increased peak-hour traffic congestion and growth in outer suburbs. Demographer Lisa Denny says Tasmania's ageing population presents a challenge for governments. (ABC News: Ebony ten Broeke) In the last five years, the municipality of Clarence, in the south, has increased by 3,350 people, and Brighton, north of Hobart, by 2,030. Meander Valley, in the state's north, has increased by 1,140 people. Because Tasmania's population growth is driven more by interstate and overseas migration than by births, demand for housing has increased. "And when you look at what's happening in the short-stay accommodation sector and losing whole houses to non-permanent occupancy, then that is also contributing to increased pressure on our housing," Dr Denny said. While some parts of the state are growing, other local government areas recorded population decline. Treasury papers state that in the past five years, Hobart declined by 350 people because of lower numbers of international students and Glenorchy, north of Hobart, lost 200 people. Tasmania's Treasury is predicting modest population growth over the next few years. Slower population growth means lower payroll tax, lower stamp duty, and lower consumer spending, which means less GST. "Which is a bigger source of revenue for the Tasmanian government than it is prop

People loved moving to Tasmania during the pandemic — but not anymore

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