Stanley Cup playoff trends: More chaos, young star...

Every NHL postseason develops its own personality, and the 2026 Stanley Cup playoffs have been a strange mix of what we expected going in but also with plenty of surprises. Every time the favorites win and we think we have a handle on who'll be skating for the Cup, hockey finds a way to throw us another weird bounce off the boards. But that doesn't mean it's all random noise. With that in mind, here are five big themes that have jumped out as we've proceeded through the first two rounds (and change) of the playoffs: In a Stanley Cup playoff with only a few clear favorites going in -- led by the Colorado Avalanche and Carolina Hurricanes, both of whom seemed even clearer going into the conference finals -- it appeared that we might be due for more postseason predictability than usual this year. (Which is saying something: the chalky 2020s have had the highest correlation between pre-playoff team Elo ratings and eventual playoff wins of any decade since at least the 1980s.) But early in the conference finals, we were reminded that there's not really a sure thing in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Last Wednesday, the Vegas Golden Knights took a 2-0 lead into the third period against Colorado, stretched it to 3-0 and held off the inevitable Avalanche push for a 4-2 win. Then, a night later, the Montreal Canadiens did something just as jarring: ambushing Carolina with four unanswered first-period goals before tacking on two more in the third to finish off the Canes. Just like that, the two teams that had looked guaranteed for a Cup collision were both staring at 1-0 series deficits instead. (The odds of both series-opening upsets happening? Just 9.6%, per Elo.) There were reasons for the losses, some that have proved more sustainable than others. The Avs also dropped Game 2 at home without Cale Makar, then blew a 3-0 first-period lead in Game 3 by giving up five unanswered goals. The Presidents' Trophy-winning Avs, who were Cup favorites all but a few days since early November, find themselves on the verge of being swept out of the Western Conference finals. Right away, we should have remembered how our best-laid hockey predictions often go awry. On back-to-back nights, the symbolism of two teams who'd previously been a combined 16-1 in the playoffs falling to heavy on-paper underdogs was a reminder that the hockey playoffs are not built for glide paths to the Stanley Cup Final. Last season's playoffs were a bit of an anomaly. Though the topline result was exactly the same as it had been in 2024 -- Florida Panthers over Edmonton Oilers in the Final -- the way we got there was much more offensive than usual. Not only did teams average 3.10 goals in the postseason itself -- the third most in any playoffs this century -- but scoring actually rose by 2.1% (from 3.04 goals during the regular season) in the playoffs. To give a sense for how rare that is, it has happened only five times since the 2000 postseason, and once -- when scoring rose by 5.2% between the regular season and playoffs in 2010 -- did the postseason get more of an offensive boost than it did last spring. The overall norm is, unsurprisingly, for scoring to drop as the action becomes tighter, more defensive and more bone-crunching: in the average season since 2000, goals per game dip by 6.2% from the regular season to the playoffs. Against that standard, a 2.1% jump is startlingly abnormal. Watch your favorite events in the newly enhanced ESPN App. Learn more about what plan is right for you. Sign Up Now But things are back to normal so far in 2026. After averaging a healthy 3.13 goals in the regular season, per-game scoring is down to 2.96 in the playoffs -- a drop of 5.4%, fairly close to the change we've seen in the typical season over the years. Who has this trend favored? It's hard to say, since Carolina and Colorado ranked among the top five on both offense and defense during the regular season; they're capable of playing multiple different styles. Montreal has won in the tighter defensive environment despite being a more offense-oriented team (No. 7 in goals for per game and only 16th in goals against) this regular season. And even though postseason scoring is down, don't tell Vegas -- the Golden Knights are putting more pucks in the playoff nets (3.69 goals per game) than they did in the regular season (3.22). One area in which it might have shown up is just in a weird scramble of names atop the league scoring leaderboard. Mitch Marner leads all players in scoring with 21 points through 15 games, and Nathan MacKinnon is tied for fourth with 15 through 12. Connor McDavid and the Oilers didn't stick around for him to crack the top 60 in scoring. Pavel Dorofeyev and Brett Howden lead the playoffs in goals scored; Alex Newhook isn't far behind. With the regular season's biggest offensive stars either headed home early or surpassed by players who weren't on anyone's radar as playoff stars, it's another reminder how much tighter postseason

Stanley Cup playoff trends: More chaos, young star...

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