McDonald’s Will Trade at This Price in 2028

McDonald’s Will Trade at This Price in 2028 Vandita Jadeja Fri, June 12, 2026 at 9:40 PM GMT+7 4 min read MCD NVDA Quick Read MCD stock is down 5.67% YTD while global comps grew 3.8% and quarterly loyalty sales topped $9 billion. Wall Street s $331 consensus underweights McDonald s $38 billion loyalty flywheel spanning 70 markets and compounding systemwide sales. Reaching $375 by 2028 requires a 28x forward P/E, contingent on AI drive-thru margin gains, chicken share growth, and EPS near $15. Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and McDonald s didn t make the cut. Grab the names FREE today. McDonald s (NYSE:MCD) is the rare mega-cap where the business is accelerating while the stock sits still. Global comps grew 3.8% last quarter, loyalty sales topped $9 billion in 90 days, and revenue jumped 9.4% YoY. Yet shares are down 5.67% year to date. I think the disconnect creates an opportunity. The question I want to answer here: can McDonald s stock realistically hit $375 by 2028? That is the bold target. Here is the math behind it. The stock closed at $284.77 on June 11, well below the 52-week high of $337.56. Performance has been ugly in pockets: down 3.33% over one year and off nearly 5.67% YTD, even after a 4.42% bounce last week. The reasons are real. CEO Chris Kempczinski acknowledged on the Q1 call that the macro backdrop "is certainly not improving, and it may be getting a little bit worse," with low-income spending still declining. Beef inflation, higher interest expense (guided up 4 to 6% in 2026), and ongoing restructuring charges through 2027 are squeezing the narrative. With a beta of just 0.414, MCD is built to grind steadily higher rather than spike. Consensus target sits at $331.29, with 5 Strong Buy, 14 Buy, 14 Hold, and 1 Sell rating. Our model s base case lands at $322.66 over 12 months, with a bull scenario of $349.85 and a bear case of $298.80. Confidence is 90%, which is high. Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and McDonald s didn t make the cut. Grab the names FREE today. My view: analysts are anchoring to near-term beef costs and underrating the loyalty flywheel. TTM loyalty sales already exceed $38 billion across 70 markets. With 56% bullish analyst skew already in place, the upside surprise is operational leverage, not sentiment. Reaching $375 from today s price of $284.77 would require a gain of 31.7%. With forward EPS of $13.40, a price of $375 implies a forward P/E of 28x. Our base case of $322.66 already implies 23x, meaning the bold target requires roughly 5x of additional multiple expansion. Is that achievable? I think yes, but only if three things happen. First, the 247Factor adjustment of 1.074 needs to keep expanding as comps stay positive. Second, the "McDonald s NEXT" strategic repositioning and the ArchIQ AI drive-thru rollout with Google have to start showing margin lift. Third, the chicken category, which Kempczinski called "bigger than beef globally, and it s growing 2x faster," needs to keep taking share. Add the FIFA World Cup 2026 marketing push and a 50,000-restaurant footprint target by 2027, and the EPS denominator does the work. The primary risk is a deeper consumer recession that stalls comps and forces value-driven margin compression. At $284.77, MCD trades at roughly 21x forward earnings, below its trailing P/E of 23 and the forward P/E of 22. Shares sit between a 52-week low of $270.15 and a high of $337.56. Over the past decade, MCD has returned 194.66%, proving the compounding case. For a defensive name throwing off a 2.61% yield and $7.19 billion in annual free cash flow, that multiple looks like value. Reaching $375 by 2028 requires a 31.7% gain and a forward multiple near 28x. That is a stretch, but not a long shot. Three things need to go right: loyalty members keep driving systemwide sales above 6%, the chicken and beverage platforms scale internationally, and EPS compounds toward $14 to $15. A consumer recession deeper than today s pressure would derail it. Returns at this level shouldn t be expected every year, but we ve outlined the blueprint for how McDonald s could reach $375 in 2028. Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and McDonald s didn t make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.

McDonald’s Will Trade at This Price in 2028

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