Worst-case climate scenario is off the table, but warming is not
Key takeaways
- Renewables rollout is helping to shift emissions trends, but expected temperature rises remain high as the UN moves to tighten countries’ commitments.
- A temperature rise of more than 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 Fahrenheit) by the end of the century would bring with it catastrophic consequences including deadly heatwaves, rising seas, crop failures and mass displacement.
- But a scientific paper published last month says that doomsday pathway — known as RCP8.5 and later SSP5-8.5 — is now less probable.
Why this matters: an international story with cross-border implications worth tracking.
Renewables rollout is helping to shift emissions trends, but expected temperature rises remain high as the UN moves to tighten countries’ commitments.
https://p.dw.com/p/5E5Ef Scientists warn that even without the worst-case climate scenario, rising temperatures will intensify droughts, heatwaves and water scarcity worldwide Image: Channi Anand/AP Photo/picture alliance Advertisement For years, a worst-case climate scenario served as a stark warning of what could happen if the world failed to curb fossil fuel use. A temperature rise of more than 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 Fahrenheit) by the end of the century would bring with it catastrophic consequences including deadly heatwaves, rising seas, crop failures and mass displacement.
But a scientific paper published last month says that doomsday pathway — known as RCP8.5 and later SSP5-8.5 — is now less probable. Designed as a benchmark to help governments prepare for dangerous possibilities, the worst-case scenario was not a prediction.