Deadlock in US-Iran talks could push oil past $120, trigger regional war

LAHORE – While lauding Pakistan’s swift diplomacy in securing the ceasefire and bringing the United States and Iran to the negotiating table, speakers at a panel discussion warned that intense domestic political pressures in Washington and Tehran threaten to stall a final peace deal. A failure to reach an agreement, they cautioned, could ignite a broader regional conflagration and push global crude oil prices beyond $120 per barrel. The panel discussion, titled “Islamabad Talks: Bridging Divides Through Quiet Diplomacy,” was hosted by the Old Ravians Union (ORU) at Government College University (GCU), Lahore, to discuss Islamabad’s proactive interventions during the recent US-Iran-Israel conflict. The event brought together veteran journalists, former military personnel, and diplomats. ORU President Athar Ismail moderated the discussion, which was also addressed by Vice Chancellor Prof Dr Muhammad Omer Chaudhry and Dr Asma Ul Husna Faiz, a political scientist at LUMS. Former ambassador Mansoor Ahmed Khan observed that severe global polarisation had eroded the credibility of traditional brokers like the European Union and NATO. In this vacuum, Pakistan’s civil and military leadership stepped up, leveraging high-profile diplomacy to unite key international stakeholders. He revealed that a proposal by Tehran to separate the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz from long-term nuclear negotiations is currently gaining traction and is being actively debated by the US National Security Council. Mr Khan noted that the conflict has altered regional power dynamics, leaving Israel politically isolated while positioning Iran as a resilient player. A new regional security architecture involving Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, Egypt, Indonesia, and China is imminent, he stated, though he cautioned that Islamabad’s peace initiatives face direct opposition and coordinated disinformation campaigns from India. Senior journalist Mujeeb-ur-Rehman Shami