Our FPI projections for the 2026 NFL season: Predi...
Key takeaways
- That's the take from ESPN's Football Power Index, which launched its initial preseason ratings, rankings and projections Wednesday.
- We use these ratings to simulate the season thousands of times, with the results forming our projections.
- During the season, ratings updates are based on each team's performance on offense, defense and special teams -- adjusting for quality of opponent -- along with quarterback performance and changes.
Why this matters: a sports story that could shift standings, legacies, or fan conversations.
That's the take from ESPN's Football Power Index, which launched its initial preseason ratings, rankings and projections Wednesday. The Seahawks and Patriots rank fourth and 14th in FPI, respectively, entering 2026, with New England becoming the first team in the metric's history (since 2015) to be slated outside the top 10 of the initial rankings after making the Super Bowl.
FPI's preseason predictive ratings are primarily based on win totals from the betting market in conjunction with each team's schedule -- along with factors such as the difference between a team's starting and backup quarterback and a special teams rating that incorporates specific kickers. We use these ratings to simulate the season thousands of times, with the results forming our projections.
During the season, ratings updates are based on each team's performance on offense, defense and special teams -- adjusting for quality of opponent -- along with quarterback performance and changes. Game predictions are also affected by home-field advantage and rest differentials.