The world adrift

THE world is at an inflection point, in the middle of geopolitical upheaval and turmoil. It is more unstable today than at any time since the end of the Cold War. Rising geopolitical tensions and fierce geoeconomic competition are contributing to instability. The old order with its rules has gone. The international system is fragmenting. Multilateralism remains under unprecedented stress. Power shifts continue to reshape the international landscape, marking the advent of a multipolar era. The disregard for international law and norms by big and regional powers has left countries having to navigate a rule-less terrain at a time of uncertainty and volatility. Hard power is back, and with a vengeance. Not that it ever went away. But now it’s the first option, not the last for powerful countries to use to bend other states to their will. Diplomacy only happens after missiles fly. The US and Israel’s attack on Iran, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Israel’s war on Gaza, Lebanon and Syria and India’s military action against Pakistan all testify to the increasing use of force. All these actions flouted international law and the legal prohibition on the use of force. They were carried out with impunity, further fragmenting an already crumbling global order. The future outlook isn’t just troubled. It appears chaotic. What should we make of this state of disorder? A number of recent books deal with a world in transition, the present disarray and what might follow. They include The Triangle of Power: Rebalancing the New World Order by Alexander Stubb, The Return of the Great Powers by Brendan Simms, and Statecraft: The New Rules of Power in a Divided World by Jack Watling. These scholarly works offer insightful though varying perspectives on the current state of play and differ in how they see the future panning out. Stubb is the president and former prime minister and foreign minister of Finland. He draws on that experience for his analysis of the international system and how to