Europe Goes Its Own Way

MARINA HENKE is Professor of International Relations at the Hertie School and Director of its Centre for International Security. IREN MARINOVA is a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. TILL KNOBLOCH is a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. Drifting From America, the Continent Is Rearming and Reordering Itself Marina Henke, Iren Marinova, and Till Knobloch Europeans have been humiliated, disparaged, and sidelined since U.S. President Donald Trump returned to office in 2025. Indeed, it is no exaggeration to say that Europe has become the president’s favorite punching bag. The continent is, his administration believes, militarily emaciated, economically irrelevant, politically unfit, and culturally doomed to civilizational erasure. Trump’s attempt to coerce Denmark into relinquishing Greenland in 2025 was symbolic of the administration’s dismissive attitude. So set is Washington in its beliefs about Europe, however, that it has overlooked the profound changes that are taking place. For the first time in decades, Europeans recognize the dangers that surround them. They are, accordingly, willing to invest in military resources and serve in their countries’ armed forces. From these shifts a new grand strategy is slowly being forged, which signals a new European geopolitical and strategic trajectory. Europe has come to recognize that its old paradigm—wealth without military strength, influence without sacrifice, and protection without obligation—is no longer sustainable. To dismiss Europe as permanently irrelevant is to ignore the scale and depth of the changes that are now underway. For decades, European countries reflexively aligned themselves with Washington’s priorities. They were even willing to send their soldiers to fight in U.S.-led wars that many of their publics—and at times their governments—regarded as misguided, peripheral, or strategically costly. A Europe that invests seriously in its own defense will no longer do that—and Washington had better get ready. After decades of complacency, Europeans have awakened to the reality that they live in a dangerous world. According to polling conducted for the European Commission, 77 percent of Europeans think that Russia’s war in Ukraine represents a direct threat to Europe’s survival. Concern is strongest in eastern and northern Europe, but 59 percent of respondents in Germany, 50 percent in France, and 49 percent in the United Kingdom also consider Russia the greatest threat to their country’s national security. These are Europe’s largest and most powerful states. The Russian threat is thus no longer a concern confined to Europe’s periphery. It has moved to the heart of the continent. This sense of insecurity is increased by the fact that many Europeans now realize that they can no longer rely on the United States. According to a YouGov poll commissioned by the European Council on Foreign Relations in May, only 11 percent of Europeans across the 15 surveyed countries (Austria, Bulgaria, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom) viewed the United States as an ally—down sharply from 16 percent six months earlier and 22 percent in November 2024. While confidence in the United States has been steadily declining in most surveyed countries, it is a more recent development in Hungary and Poland. Majorities in every country surveyed expressed doubt that the United States would come to their defense in the event of an attack, while 25 percent of respondents now see the United States as either a rival or an adversary. Given the Russian threat and U.S. unreliability, many Europeans now support military buildups. Majorities in Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom favor increasing national defense expenditures. Italy is the only country where a clear majority remains opposed. Remarkably, across the 15 countries surveyed, 47 percent of respondents now support collective EU borrowing to finance defense initiatives, with 59 percent in favor in Portugal, 56 percent in Denmark, and 55 percent in the Netherlands. Until very recently, this idea was politically unthinkable. Equally strikingly, majorities now also favor cutting Europe’s dependence on U.S. military hardware and turning instead to European alternatives. Support for buying European is especially pronounced in Denmark, the Netherlands, and Sweden. Finally, majorities in France, Germany, and Poland now support reinstating mandatory military service, which is already in place in countries such as Denmark, Estonia, and Switzerland. Poland and Germany ended compulsory conscription in 2010 and 2011, respectively, whereas France phased out mandatory military service

Europe Goes Its Own Way

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