Quant fund says bitcoin is near a major inflection point as rare onchain signals align
Key takeaways
- In a recent report, the hedge fund explained that four proprietary onchain signals have aligned only five times during bitcoin's 15-year history.
- "We have literally like every box checked, except for a final pattern," Sullivan said in an interview with CoinDesk.
- If either scenario unfolds, Sullivan believes bitcoin could quickly diverge from broader financial markets.
In a recent report, the hedge fund explained that four proprietary onchain signals have aligned only five times during bitcoin's 15-year history. Each previous occurrence marked a cycle bottom, although Sullivan cautioned that this time still lacks final technical confirmation.
"We have literally like every box checked, except for a final pattern," Sullivan said in an interview with CoinDesk. "Either we have to break above the $82,000 pivot to confirm, or we have one final low, call it between $54,000 and $57,000. Perhaps a wick to $48,000 to capitulate. One of those two conditions we expect to happen in the next 90 days."
If either scenario unfolds, Sullivan believes bitcoin could quickly diverge from broader financial markets. The crypto asset is trading at $59,386 after losing 23% over the past month, extending its divergence from U.S. equities, which had climbed to record highs before also coming under pressure this month.