Here are the 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week ahead

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Here are the 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week ahead Published Sun, Jun 14 20268:41 AM EDTKevin Stankiewicz@in/kevin-stankiewicz-b5593466Zev Fima@zevfima The Space X IPO is behind us. The earnings calendar is mostly quiet. Taking center stage is the state of play between the U.S. and Iran and the first Federal Reserve meeting with Chairman Kevin Warsh in charge. Here's a closer look at what we're watching in the holiday-shortened trading week ahead. 1. Iran war: Are we finally getting a peace deal to end the fighting and reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz? It's become hard to follow all the back-and-forth on negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. One day, reports suggest Washington and Tehran are making progress on a resolution. The next day, we're hearing about a fresh round of strikes. Sometimes, the tenor changes within a matter of hours — as it did Thursday. Before the opening bell, President Donald Trump said the U.S. was going to hit Iran "very hard tonight," with plans to soon seize Iranian oil infrastructure. That muted some of the stock market's gains in morning trading. By the afternoon, Trump had called off the upcoming attack and claimed a settlement with Iran was just awaiting the "finalization of documents." Oil prices tumbled, and the stock market ripped higher into the close. Friday brought another batch of encouraging headlines, and on Saturday, Trump said an agreement will be signed Sunday. However, Iranian state media cast doubt on the timing, though it said one could be reached in the coming days. Our ultimate conclusion: Day trading the Iran war remains a fool's errand because it's impossible to really predict what the next headline will be. The latest headline can be used to make a move, such as trimming a stock that soared on optimism about a resolution or adding to a position unfairly dinged by negative news. We just can't know for sure what will happen next. At the same time, we cannot leave the market because a big move higher could be around the corner if an agreement materializes that results in the Strait of Hormuz reopening to maritime traffic. That should bring relief to oil prices and, by extension, ease some of the inflationary pressures hitting the U.S. economy since the war broke out Feb. 28. The point is, the market will be influenced by the apparent status of negotiations. We're hopeful a deal materializes, but recent history tells us we must brace for fits and starts. 2. Fed meeting: The Warsh era is upon us. With inflation way above the Fed's 2% target and the labor market solid , the central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday afternoon. This is one of the four Fed meetings each year when the central bank releases its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) — home to the so-called dot plot of rate expectations and projections for GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation. In a note to clients Friday, Bank of America economists wrote, "The SEP should show higher inflation, a lower [unemployment] rate, and no cuts this year. A few policymakers will likely project hikes. We don't think Warsh will submit forecasts." These outlooks are only a snapshot in time, and we generally don't read too much into them. That's arguably even more true now, considering the unpredictable war and oil prices will heavily influence the Fed's moves in the coming months. The main event comes at 2:30 p.m. ET Wednesday, when Warsh, who succeeded Jerome Powell on May 22 , holds his first post-meeting press conference. CNBC's longtime Fed correspondent Steve Liesman summed up all the intrigue perfectly in a story Friday morning : Markets head into the first Fed meeting run by new Chair Kevin Warsh with almost no idea what he thinks about the recent surge in job growth, the acceleration in inflation or the path of interest rates. And that may be by design. Warsh has pledged to lead "a reform-oriented Federal Reserve," which may include changes to the way the Fed communicates with markets. At his Senate confirmation hearing in April, Warsh didn't commit to maintaining the Powell standard of holding a news conference after each of the eight policy meetings each year. That's the context for Warsh taking questions from the press on Wednesday afternoon. This is the market's real first chance to hear from Warsh at the helm, and it's possible they will be less frequent going forward. Does Warsh believe the oil-driven spike in inflation warrants tighter policy from the Fed, or is it worth looking through as essentially a one-off supply shock? As Jim Cramer said last week, the spike in inflation is, in some sense, "artificial" and a resolution to the war should help turn the tide — a view that would support holding off on any hikes. To be sure, the European C