Evercore’s Emanuel sees path for S&P 500 to reach 9,000 in bullish AI-driven scenario
Key takeaways
- Drawing historical comparisons, Emanuel wrote: “The Pandemic changed everything.
- He added that these dynamics could help drive productivity growth to 3% by the end of the decade.
- At the same time, the firm also advised using a collar strategy on the SPY ETF as protection against near-term risks tied to oil prices and interest rate volatility.
Evercore’s Emanuel sees path for S&P 500 to reach 9,000 in bullish AI-driven scenario Fiona Craig Mon, May 25, 2026 at 8:12 PM GMT+7 2 min read ^GSPC chart48 ©Shutterstock Evercore ISI strategist Julian Emanuel has established a year-end 2026 base-case target of 7,750 for the S&P 500, while also assigning a 30% probability to a bullish scenario in which the index climbs to 9,000, fueled by artificial intelligence-driven strength in technology, communication services and consumer discretionary sectors.
In a client note released Monday, Emanuel said the combination of a long-term technology-led bull market and major geopolitical shifts is creating a much broader range of possible market outcomes than investors and traditional forecasting models typically anticipate, increasing the likelihood of extreme scenarios on both the upside and downside.
Drawing historical comparisons, Emanuel wrote: “The Pandemic changed everything. Warlike stimulus, surging M2, and a productivity shock collide with an ‘AI Revolution’ – reminiscent of the 1920s and 1990s.”