Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week ahead

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Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week ahead Published Sun, Jun 28 20269:23 AM EDTUpdated 2 Hours Ago Zev Fima@zevfima Kevin Stankiewicz@in/kevin-stankiewicz-b5593466Wall Street heads into another holiday-shortened week of trading after a rough few days for the AI trade . The health of the labor market will be a big focus for investors. Within our portfolio, there's a make-or-break earnings report that will determine whether we'll keep the stock around. The market will also grapple with a flare-up violence in the Middle East, despite the U.S. and Iran having agreed to a 60-day ceasefire while negotiating a more durable end to the four-month conflict. The weekend escalation comes after tanker traffic through the vital Strait of Hormuz picked up last week, leading to a further retreat in oil prices. U.S. benchmark WTI crude on Friday settled below $70 a barrel for the first time since the war started on Feb. 28. International oil standard Brent, meanwhile, is down 22% in June, on pace for its biggest monthly decline since March 2020, at the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. The dramatic decline in oil prices as the strait reopened had helped ease concerns that the Federal Reserve would need to hike interest rates multiple times later this year to squash inflation. For investors, the question heading into the trading week is whether the fallout from the attacks — first by Iran on Thursday, followed by retaliatory U..S. actions — impacts traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices. On social media Sunday morning, President Donald Trump threatened Iran with annihilation. Now, here's a closer look at what to expect from the upcoming economic data releases and Nike's earnings report. 1. Economic updates: Outside of any additional Iran-related developments, this week's major macroeconomic reports can be divided into jobs and manufacturing. On the jobs front, we've got the May JOLTS (Jobs Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) out Tuesday, followed by payroll processor ADP's private payrolls report on Wednesday and the government's official nonfarm payrolls report on Thursday. Those two releases are for the month of June. The JOLTS report is notable because it provides insight into labor market tightness by tracking job openings, hires, quits, layoffs/discharges, and other causes of separation. Nonetheless, it is the least consequential of the three labor-market updates. At this point, the data is a month old and we already know the net number of jobs added to the economy in May. The answer, which we learned on June 5 , was a stronger-than-expected 172,000 before any revisions. The ADP report on Wednesday is an appetizer for what arrives Thursday. The Labor Department's nonfarm payrolls report is the big one, and we're getting it a day early this month given the market is closed Friday in observance of Independence Day. This is where we get the net additions for private sector and government jobs in June, along with a plethora of data including wage growth, workforce participation, and unemployment rates. The U.S. is a consumer-based economy, with two-thirds of gross domestic product coming from private consumption. The more folks at work, and the more money they make, the greater potential there is for economic growth. As of Friday, according to FactSet, economists are forecasting 87,500 payroll additions, with an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.3%, and 0.3% increase in hourly earnings. Wall Street, of course, is always trying to get ahead of everyone else, which is why the ADP employment survey is the second most important report of the week. While it may only report private-sector payrolls, and isn't from an official government source, investors still look at it for clues as to where the labor market stands to help position for the nonfarm report later in the week. As of Friday, economists are looking for the ADP report to show 92,500 job additions, according to FactSet. On the manufacturing front, we've got the Institute for Supply Management's monthly manufacturing report is due out Wednesday, followed by the Census Bureau's full report on factory orders on Thursday. Of the two, it's ISM's purchasing managers index (PMI) that will influence investors' thinking on the market. Because the report offers forward-looking commentary from industry sources, it's referred to as a leading indicator. In fact, on Thursday night, FedEx Freight CEO John Smith called out the ISM PMI as something they use to help gauge demand and manage the business. Factory orders, on the other hand, strictly includes what happened in the reported month, making it a lagging indicator. While it has value in tracking the economy over time, the market is always going to value forward-looking information over that in th