Real or not? Debating whether Rays, Cardinals and ...
Key takeaways
- Their success, however, ignores much of the unpredictability of recent seasons.
- With the chaotic start to the 2026 season, it looks almost certain that we're going to see a surprise team -- or three -- making a run into the postseason.
- Record: 30-15, 9-1 in one-run games Run differential: Plus-25 Preseason Power Ranking: 21
Why this matters: a sports story that could shift standings, legacies, or fan conversations.
Is the Rays' good start real? We give an early verdict on MLB's most surprising teams of 2026. AP Photo/Steven Senne David Schoenfield May 18, 2026, 07:00 AM ETClose Covers MLB for ESPN.com Former deputy editor of Page 2 Been with ESPN.com since 1995Multiple Authors Email Print Open Extended Reactions. The back-to-back World Series titles for the Los Angeles Dodgers helped cement the sentiment that baseball is too predictable.
Their success, however, ignores much of the unpredictability of recent seasons. Of note: The Texas Rangers went from 68-94 in 2022 to a World Series title in 2023; the Arizona Diamondbacks reached the Fall Classic that season just two years after going 52-110; the Toronto Blue Jays improved by 20 wins last season and came heartbreakingly close to a championship. Even the Milwaukee Brewers, who reached the NL Championship Series in 2025, were just 15th in ESPN's preseason Power Rankings before going on to lead the majors with 97 wins that season.
With the chaotic start to the 2026 season, it looks almost certain that we're going to see a surprise team -- or three -- making a run into the postseason. In this edition of Real or Not, let's dig into which of these clubs look like serious playoff contenders and which might fade as the 162-game season rolls along.