A budget to forget

STATE budgets mustn’t mirror boring finance ledgers that merely balance revenues and outlays. They must embody strong strategy scripts that show vividly how the state will drive progress. But reading ours is painful as one goes through over 100 unrelated petty measures that don’t add up to a gripping vision for progress. Clearly, progress isn’t a goal to pursue for our elite hybrid rulers but a prospect to fear, as it harms their dubious wealth and power. So, the new status quo federal budget makes the rich richer, the poor poorer, and the IMF and big lobbies happier. It defers yet again the state reforms and societal restructuring we urgently need to thrive. Our rulers dread them and so fail on most key aims of good budgets. The document meets the fiscal balance aim with a deficit target of 3.6 per cent of GDP (against 7-8pc till recently) but via heist and spin. It expropriates surpluses from meek provinces to force them to cut spending by nearly 20pc, mainly uplift funds. This effectively cuts their NFC share from 57.5pc to 46pc and the share in total federal funds to only 34pc if we add federal non-tax funds, which are raised mostly in provinces. This covert heist, despite the 4pc cut in debt outlays from last year because of large interest rate cuts, was due to a fall in State Bank profits too, a rise in defence outlays after the 2025 war with India, tax relief, and the aim to avoid new taxes. Some had hopes that growing Saudi defence ties would help with rising defence outlays. Rulers could also raise taxes on undertaxed sectors and cut waste, subsidies and state units’ losses, instead. As these steps hurt the elites, those in power cut uplift funds at all levels. Had these funds been used well there could have been less poverty and more progress. The total revenue aim is part spin as we usually miss it. So, we may have a mini-budget taxing mainly the masses or more cuts in uplift funds. There is no real increase in the revenue aim from last year over inflatio