How France Falls to the Far Right
Key takeaways
- MUJTABA RAHMAN is Managing Director for Europe at the Eurasia Group and a Senior Visiting Fellow at the London School of Economics.
- The Growing Odds and Seismic Consequences of a Le Pen–Bardella Victory
- Next year, France could elect its first far-right leader since 1944.
MUJTABA RAHMAN is Managing Director for Europe at the Eurasia Group and a Senior Visiting Fellow at the London School of Economics. He previously served as an economist at the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs and as an economist at the British Treasury.
The Growing Odds and Seismic Consequences of a Le Pen–Bardella Victory
Next year, France could elect its first far-right leader since 1944. Campaigning for the elections, which are scheduled for next April, is already underway, and opinion poll after opinion poll shows that the Rassemblement National, also known as the RN or National Rally, has a commanding lead. The popularity of the RN—which was founded in 1972 as the National Front by Jean-Marie Le Pen, before being rebranded by his daughter Marine in 2018—has grown steadily over the past 30 years, boosted by unease over rising immigration and France’s economic struggles. In 2017 and 2022 presidential elections, this sentiment carried Marine Le Pen to the second round of voting, where she lost soundly to Emmanuel Macron both times.